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Risk Swine Tool


"Risk Swine Tool" – Risk assessment tool for Swine diseases introduction (CIRAD – CreSA – CENSA – CaribVET)

Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Teschovirus Encephalomyelitis (TE) have been identified as priority diseases for the Caribbean because of their sanitary, economic and social repercussions in affected countries, together with their high diffusion potential. After the emergence of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) in the USA in 2013 and its further dissemination to other countries in the Americas and the Dominican Republic, the Steering Committee of the Caribbean Animal Health Network (CaribVET) added PED as a new priority for the region.

A tool for risk analysis (RA) of swine diseases introduction/dissemination at national levels and applicable to the Caribbean region has been developed by CENSA and CaribVET, initially developed for CSF and TE. It has been revised and adapted in 2015 for PED within the framework of the Epigenesis Project with assistance of partners from CReSA.

The trilingual tool is a user friendly Excel Spreadsheet including the guidelines and questions for the risk assessment, is divided in three sections: 1) Release assessment of the pathogen from the affected country, 2) Exposure (dissemination) assessment of the susceptible pig population and 3) Consequence assessment of the pathogen introduction. A flexible RA tool has been designed. In section 1, the disease situation of the affected country and routes of pathogen introduction in the exposed country are considered. In section 2, the sanitary vulnerability in the exposed country is analyzed (control in external quarantine, performance of surveillance and diagnostic system, structure of the swine industry). Section 3 includes assessment of potential disease impacts in different swine production sectors. Values of scores for each criterion have been defined by an expert group for the disease being evaluated and the tool has been tested and validated in two Caribbean countries at risk.

Harmonization of sanitary risk assessment at national levels contributes to improve regional prevention and control strategies. The work has been presented at ISVEE, Mexico (see reference below). The tool is now being tested and validated with end-users in several Caribbean countries. The tool and guidelines are available upon request to the CaribVET Secretariat.

Percedo M.I., Casal J., Guitián J., Zepeda C., Góngora V., Ellis G., Frías M.T., Alba Casals A., Calvo F., Pradel J. 2015. Risk analysis tool developed to assist with decision-making on prevention of swine diseases. Application to Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea in Caribbean countries. In 14th conference of the International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Merida, Mexico, 3-7 November 2015 (Poster)


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